For up to two years (2020–2021), many Australian students experienced periods of learning from home during the COVID pandemic. Parents, teachers, and policymakers feared these prolonged lockdown would cause significant “learning loss,” especially in core skills like literacy and numeracy. Now that we have data from before, during, and after those remote-learning periods, what impact did the pandemic actually have on student learning outcomes in Australia?
What were the predicted outcomes?
When schools moved online in 2020, experts sounded the alarm. Research suggested that students (especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds) would learn much less during remote schooling. A mid-2020 Grattan Institute report estimated that many disadvantaged students learned at only ~50% of their regular pace during lockdown – roughly 4 weeks behind in a 2-month period. They warned the achievement gap between advantaged and disadvantaged could widen three times faster than usual.
Early surveys reinforced concerns: one national parent survey indicated up to 1.25 million Australian students had fallen behind during the remote-learning period. In NSW, internal assessments suggested students might be 3–4 months behind in Year 3 reading, 2–3 months behind in Year 5 reading and numeracy, and up to 4 months behind in Year 9 numeracy.
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How has Australian student performance changed after COVID?
Australia’s nationwide assessment, NAPLAN (National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy), offers the best big-picture view. NAPLAN tests reading, writing, language conventions, and numeracy in Years 3, 5, 7, and 9 each year. The 2019 NAPLAN was the last pre-pandemic benchmark. The 2020 tests were cancelled due to COVID, but testing resumed in 2021 and 2022, allowing us to compare results.
The surprising headline: NAPLAN results remained remarkably stable through the pandemic. In 2021, students in all tested year levels performed on par with 2019. According to ACARA (the national curriculum and assessment authority), there was “no significant impact on literacy and numeracy at the national, state or territory level” in 2021 despite lockdowns. In fact, the only statistically significant change from 2019 to 2021 was an improvement – Year 7 writing scores in the Northern Territory went up.
The 2022 NAPLAN results again showed no drastic decline overall. ACARA CEO David de Carvalho noted that for a second year, results “defied predictions of drastic falls in performance related to COVID”. Most year levels and domains held steady from 2021 to 2022. Long-term trends (since NAPLAN began in 2008) also remained largely intact – with some positive signs in literacy. For example, reading scores in the primary years have been trending upwards, and that continued through the pandemic. Writing scores, which had been declining up to 2018, actually turned around and have trended upward since 2019 – a possible silver lining.
However, the data isn’t all rosy. A few dips and pain points emerged, particularly in 2022, that indicate where learning did suffer:
- Numeracy slipped: Several year levels saw small declines in maths performance by 2022 compared to pre-pandemic. Education experts pointed out an “overall slip in maths results since before the pandemic”. For example, the national average Year 5 numeracy score fell from about 496 in 2019 to 488 in 2022 (roughly a 8-point drop). Year 7 and Year 9 numeracy means also dipped a few points nationally (see Table 1). While modest, these declines were widespread – “right across the board in all different states and year levels”, according to Grattan Institute education director Dr. Jordana Hunter. She cautioned that although COVID disruptions may have contributed, this trend pre-dated the pandemic and could also reflect factors like ongoing teacher shortages in maths.
- Some literacy warning signs: Overall reading and writing scores held up, but there are areas of concern. Most notably, Year 9 boys’ reading achievement hit a record low in 2022. Only 86.5% of Year 9 boys met the national minimum standard in reading – meaning almost 1 in 7 Year 9 boys did not reach the basic benchmark. This is the worst ever outcome for that group, down from about 92% at standard in 2008. In other words, almost 15% of 14-15 year old boys were reading below the expected minimum, a statistic experts find “certainly concerning”. Spelling results for Year 9 also declined in 2022, reversing earlier improvements. These dips suggest that middle-secondary students, especially boys, lost some ground in literacy during the pandemic years.
- Younger students and grammar: Some data hinted that remote learning had a bigger effect on younger primary students’ foundational skills. In Victoria, for instance, Year 5 grammar and punctuation scores fell in 2022, a drop that might reflect those students having spent Year 3 and Year 4 largely online. “Learning from home in early primary [years]” may have impacted basic language mechanics more than it did for older students who were already more independent learners. (On the flip side, Victoria’s Year 7 and 9 writing scores actually jumped significantly, as we’ll discuss shortly.)
To put these results in perspective, it helps to compare key metrics across states. Table 1 below shows Year 5 Reading and Numeracy average scores in 2019 (pre-COVID) vs 2022 (post-lockdowns) for Australia as a whole and the major states. Year 5 is a pivotal stage (upper primary) where foundational skills should be solidifying, so any COVID impacts might be evident here.
Table 1: Year 5 NAPLAN Average Scores (Reading & Numeracy), 2019 vs 2022
As the table shows, reading results actually rose slightly or held steady from 2019 to 2022 in most cases. Every state listed saw Year 5 reading averages either improve or essentially remain level. Victoria, despite enduring the longest school closures, managed to improve its Year 5 reading score (from ~515 to 519). NSW also improved, and Queensland and WA were basically unchanged. This aligns with national data indicating that literacy (especially reading) was largely resilient through the pandemic
Numeracy tells a different story. Every jurisdiction saw Year 5 numeracy dip by 2022. Nationally the drop was around 8 points. NSW’s Year 5 maths average fell slightly (500→496), while WA’s fell 3 points. More strikingly, Queensland and Victoria both saw about a 12-point drop in Year 5 numeracy (roughly equivalent to several months of learning). These two states make an interesting contrast: Victoria had the most lockdown learning, whereas Queensland had minimal COVID disruption – yet both saw similar declines in primary numeracy. This suggests the pandemic’s impact on maths skills wasn’t only about days spent in remote learning; it might also involve broader factors (like the difficulty of teaching math online, or pandemic-related stress affecting learning). Dr. Hunter of the Grattan Institute noted that numeracy results were down across all states and year levels compared to pre-pandemic benchmarks, not just in the lockdown-heavy south-east.
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Another notable pattern is that Victoria’s results did not collapse despite having the most prolonged remote learning. By 2022, Victorian students were roughly on par with or even ahead of other states in many areas. For example, Victorian Year 5 reading and numeracy averages remain among the highest in the country.
A study by UNSW and the University of Sydney analyzed NAPLAN outcomes by amount of remote schooling and found little difference: students who had “extended periods” of remote learning performed similarly to those who had only short closures. In other words, a Victorian student who learned from home for 20+ weeks often kept pace with a Western Australian student who missed only a few days of school
The authors suggest Australia’s generally effective COVID response (which minimized illness within schools during 2020–21) and the massive efforts of teachers and parents in supporting at-home learning helped blunt the educational impact. Compared to countries like the US or UK, where test scores plunged, Australia’s “stable” results stand out.
What about within the states?
Expert Insights: Making Sense of the Impact (or Lack Thereof)
How do we interpret the relatively stable outcomes in the face of massive disruption? Education experts offer a few insights:
- Rapid adaptation and resilience: Australian schools and families adapted quickly to online learning. Teachers moved to Zoom classes and take-home packs; parents became co-educators overnight. It wasn’t perfect, but it may have prevented academic free-fall. “Not all students ‘lose’ learning during lockdowns,” notes Grattan’s Julie Sonnemann – many coped or even thrived, though some struggled greatly. The fact that literacy (which often involves more independent reading) held up better than numeracy suggests many students kept up with reading at home, whereas math learning proved harder without in-person support. Australian students also missed fewer total school days due to illness than peers overseas, thanks to our COVID controls.
- Targeted interventions helped: Several states proactively mitigated learning loss. Victoria’s Tutor Learning Initiative is a prime example. In 2021, Victoria deployed over 6,400 tutors to work with about 200,000 students who needed extra help – an enormous catch-up effort. Small-group tutoring sessions (often 3–5 students) ran for 20 weeks, focusing on literacy and numeracy gaps. This continued into 2022 with another $230 million round of tutoring. It’s likely that these measures prevented larger declines, especially for struggling students. “Victoria’s results might also show the value of small group tutoring,” said Dr. Hunter, pointing to the state’s heavy investment in catch-up support. NSW implemented a similar COVID Intensive Learning Support Program, with $337 million for tutoring an estimated 290,000 students in 2021–2022. By one tally, over 16,000 educators were hired as tutors across NSW, reaching students in both government and non-government schools. Other states like Queensland, SA, and Tasmania also funded tutoring or remedial programs, though on a more modest scale. All this means many students who fell behind were identified and given extra help, cushioning the overall impact on test scores.
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- Where there were losses, recovery is underway: The areas that showed drops – such as maths skills – are now a focus of remediation. For example, some educators note that current Year 7 students (who were in Year 5 during 2020’s disruptions) might need reinforcement in numeracy to make up for shaky foundations. The 2022 NAPLAN report itself flags that the cohort who missed Year 3 NAPLAN (2020) and then scored lower in Year 5 numeracy in 2022 should be closely tracked as they move to Year 7. The good news: early 2023 data (from new proficiency standards introduced in NAPLAN) continues to show literacy improvements in primary years and a narrowing of some gaps, even as it highlights that about one-third of students aren’t meeting new higher benchmarks. Ongoing efforts like the federal government’s planned revisions to the National School Reform Agreement will target those gaps.
- International context: Globally, studies found major learning losses in 2020–2021 – for instance, a 5-point drop in reading and 7-point drop in math for 9-year-olds in the US (the largest drop in decades). Many European countries also saw marked declines. Australia stands out for its relatively flat trajectory. “The learning deficit [in NSW] was smaller than in the UK or US,” one international review noted. This has led some to call Australia’s pandemic academic performance “academically resilient”. Of course, this doesn’t mean no impact – it just means we mitigated it better. Australian Year 4 students in 2021 held their ground in reading on the international PIRLS assessment, with no significant drop from 2016 on average. Notably, PIRLS did detect a 14-point decline in Victoria’s Year 4 reading score compared to 2016, likely due to those students having spent much of 2020–21 learning remotely. However, ACER’s experts pointed out that “the proportion of students achieving the national proficient standard was stable” in Victoria – suggesting the drop was concentrated among higher achievers, and basic standards were maintained. They also found that the 2022 Year 5 NAPLAN reading results in Victoria bounced back to be similar to the previous cohort’s performance. In short, any learning losses observed in primary reading appeared to be temporary, with recovery by the next year.
Finally, it’s important to emphasise that academic outcomes are only one part of the pandemic story. The social and emotional toll on students was real – something not measured by test scores. Many students reported loss of motivation, loneliness, and anxiety during lockdowns. Those factors indirectly affect learning too. So even if the scores are steady, educators remain concerned about student well-being and engagement, which are critical for long-term success.
Moving Forward: Helping Students Recover and Thrive
Recognising that some students did fall behind, Australian governments and schools have launched various interventions to address learning loss:
- Tutoring Blitzes – As mentioned, Victoria and NSW led with large-scale tutoring programs. These programs have been extended and adapted. For example, Victoria continued its Tutor Learning Initiative through 2022 and 2023, ensuring every public school has tutors on staff. NSW’s program was extended into 2022 with a further $256 million. Other states implemented smaller tutoring schemes or targeted literacy/numeracy intervention classes using federal COVID recovery funding. The idea of permanent, embedded small-group tutoring as a regular feature of schooling is now being discussed as a legacy of COVID. “Making small-group tuition part of an early intervention approach” could help “stop learning issues from opening up down the track,” argues Julie Sonnemann. Research suggests well-implemented tutoring can add an extra 4 months of learning in a year for struggling students. We may see these COVID-era programs evolve into long-term strategies to boost equity.
- Monitoring and assessment – Schools are paying closer attention to diagnostic assessments to catch gaps early. Many schools now use tools like online reading assessments or “check-in” tests (developed during COVID) to identify students who missed key skills. This data-driven approach helps target support to those who need it. As one lesson from the pandemic, there’s a push for “more systematic assessment” and data sharing on what tutoring approaches work best.
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- Curriculum adjustments – Some education systems adjusted curricula to reinforce essential content that may have been missed. For instance, if a certain math unit was disrupted in 2020, teachers in 2021–22 spent extra time re-teaching those concepts. There’s also discussion of extending learning time for catch-up – through summer learning programs or extended class time – though in Australia such moves have been limited.
- Well-being and engagement initiatives – Recognizing that academic recovery goes hand-in-hand with student well-being, many schools boosted their wellbeing programs (counseling, mentoring, extracurricular activities) to re-engage students. The federal government in late 2022 also announced funding to expand mental health support in schools, indirectly supporting learning recovery by addressing issues like attendance and motivation.
Conclusion
In the end, Australia’s students showed resilience in the face of the COVID-19 education upheaval. The feared learning apocalypse largely did not occur – at least as measured by national literacy and numeracy benchmarks. By 2022, test scores in reading and writing were as strong as before (if not stronger in some cases), and while maths achievement dipped, the decline was moderate and is being addressed. There is comfort in knowing that a year or more of remote learning did not, in aggregate, devastate academic outcomes for Australian kids. This resilience is a credit to the hard work of teachers, the support of families, and initiatives that softened the blow.
However, headline stability hides individual struggles. Some students and schools did it tough – especially in low-income communities or where lockdowns compounded existing disadvantage. The pandemic likely exacerbated inequities, even if it didn’t show up as a giant national average drop. As we move forward, the focus is firmly on catch-up and equity: extending the tutoring programs that have shown promise, investing in early intervention, and tracking the progress of the COVID cohort to ensure those who fell behind get the help they need. Experts emphasise vigilance – continuing to monitor students’ learning and well-being in the coming years
The COVID-19 disruptions were unprecedented, and the education system’s response – though imperfect – prevented the worst outcomes. The task now is to take the lessons learned (the importance of targeted support, the value of parental involvement, the adaptability of digital tools) and use them to strengthen schooling for the future. If we succeed, Australian students can not only recover any learning lost, but actually leap ahead with innovations born out of crisis. In that sense, the pandemic’s impact on learning might be less a permanent setback and more a catalyst for much-needed improvements in how we support every student, every day.
